Logically, Yen should be weaken when big disaster happen. But yesterday.. it wasn’t that so. Which I don’t know how to explain for myself (but I expected Japan did anything they can do to protect Yen from dipped further, which I believe an intervention has been done by their fund manager. The know traders will sell Yen, so Japanese fund manager will buy as much as they can. Is it logic?)
Luckily, I closed all my position whenever I got a notification about Tsunami alert. Not because I afraid, but there is the risk which I can’t tolerate. I will be more lucky if I hold my short position at EURJPY and GBPJPY.
Sure, Bank of Japan will do anything to protect their economy. Policy makers will hold a policy board meeting on March 14 and announce their decision on the same day instead of March 15.
I am sure, the Tsunami will reduce Japanese manufacturing output, at the same time the demand for crude oil will reduce then will result in weaken Yen and further reduction in crude oil price.
Then what to do with Japanese Yen? To buy Japanese Yen, to sell Japanese Yen or do nothing?
Below is the chart for USDJPY before the market closed on yesterday.
Below is EURJPY before and after tsunami